Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Fri 29 Oct 2021)
Filled jobs rise 0.3% (seasonally adjusted) in September
Auckland jobs are holding up
Jobseekers falling, already halving the Delta increase
The key numbers...
- Filled job numbers in September showed sustained growth, with a 0.3% monthly increase (seasonally adjusted), adding nearly 5,700 jobs. This growth was slower than in recent months, but still means there have been eight months of uninterrupted growth.
- Earnings growth remains strong too, with a 2.3%pa increase in the monthly earnings per filled job, leaving year-end earnings per job growth at 5.8%pa.
- North Island jobs growth remains strong, up 4.3%pa, with Auckland employment activity not showing any real signs of the Delta lockdown, sitting 4.0% higher compared to both September 2020 and 2019.
- Construction employment is going in one direction only, with job growth accelerating to 7.8%pa in September, adding 14,115 workers to the industry. Professional service and health sector employment was also strong, (up 7.2%pa and 6.3%pa respectively), and the accommodation and food services sector also recorded further job gains.
- Weekly Jobseeker Support figures have continued to fall since peaking in mid-September but remain above pre-Delta levels. As at 22 October there were 190,731 Jobseeker Support recipients, up nearly 3,900 (+2.1%) from pre-Delta levels, but down from the peak of over 8,000 (+4.3%) additional compared to pre-Delta.
Filled jobs still rising
Filled jobs, monthly % change, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- Employment activity appears unperturbed by the Delta lockdown so far, reinforcing the stronger starting point for the economy and the government’s wage subsidy support. However, uncertainty remains and we are still cautious for if there may yet be a delayed effect on employment as we approach Christmas.
- Although filled jobs are showing slower growth, the situation is still far better in Auckland compared to the August 2020 Level 3 lockdown.
- Auckland’s resilience is impressive, with still-solid filled jobs, falling Jobseeker Support recipients, and firm business confidence readings all point to the region weathering the extended lockdown so far. However, concerns remain over how long some firms can hold out with a tougher summer looming.
- Industry-level job activity also shows broad-based growth, with manufacturing activity in particular showing continued moderate growth, albeit slower than some of the key employment drivers.
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