Our take on the latest Retail trade survey (Mon 24 May 2021)
Retail sales volumes up 6.8%pa in March quarter
More spending on recreational goods
Total stock down 3.0% over year to March 2021
The key numbers...
- New Zealanders’ retail spending was strong in the March quarter, with retail volumes up 2.5% from the December quarter (seasonally adjusted). This result brings retail spending over the year to March 2021 up 1.5%, with any gap in spend from lockdown well and truly recovered.
- Spending on recreational goods was the strongest aspect of the quarter, with spending up 16% from December (seasonally adjusted).
- Retail spending on electronic goods was still up 30% from a year ago, but it has lost some of its steam from the previous quarter, with sales volumes down 12% from December (seasonally adjusted).
- Retail stocks in the March quarter were down 1.1%pa, with stocks particularly low in non-store and commission-based, clothing, and motor vehicle and parts retailing (down 39%, 8.6%, and 7.6%pa respectively).
Retail sales volumes
Seasonally adjusted, $m (Sept 2010 prices)
...and our reaction
- Care needs to be taken with some of the latest retail figures – comparing sales to a year ago artificially inflates growth rates, as the impact of COVID-19 on consumer confidence was beginning to be felt a year ago, with lockdown also affecting the last five days of the March 2020 quarter. However, the growth in sales from December to March shows significant underlying strength.
- Despite the lack of international tourism during summer, retail spending still showed significant strength. This result, aligned with recent increases in consumer confidence, shows promise for the health of the economy looking forward.
- Supply chain disruptions have hassled retailers since the onset of the pandemic in 2020, making importing goods significantly more difficult. As a result, maintaining stocks has been more difficult for retailers and explains why stocks are down.
- These supply chain disruptions and lower stock levels will feed through into cost pressures and to higher inflation in the near term. However, because this shock is on the supply side, we do not expect it to result in any changes to monetary policy settings by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Latest updates
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-0.5% Total retail sales volumes in the June 2026 quarter (seas. adj.)+0.7% Core retail sales volumes in the June 2026 quarter (seas. adj.)+6.5%pa South Island core retail sales in the June 2026 quarterPremium
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Thu 27 Nov 2025
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Core retail sales volumes up 1.2% in September (seas. adj.)
Seven of 13 core industries saw quarterly rises (seas. adj.)North Island growth starting to follow the South’s lead