Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Thu 29 Apr 2021)
Filled jobs up 0.5%pa
Service sector jobs up for first time in five months
Hard-hit industries gaining back some ground
The key numbers...
- Filled jobs numbers in March rose 0.5%pa to 2.2m, driven by a 2.2% boost in goods-producing industries. Earnings growth has matched this more upbeat tone, with total earnings up 7.2%pa over the three months to March 2021, the fastest pace in a year.
- Service sector employment rose 0.2%pa – the first annual rise in five months, with seasonally adjusted jobs numbers now above pre-pandemic levels.
- Wellington and Waikato job numbers lifted further in March, up over 4,000 roles compared to last March. Stronger hiring in Auckland post Level 3 in February has seen its job losses slashed from -4,400 in February to just -480 in March.
- Canterbury has seen the first (slight) annual rise in jobs numbers since October 2020, after seeing annual falls of around 2,000 jobs per month recently.
- Filled jobs in the health, public, and construction sectors continue to drive growth, with job numbers in tourism-related industries improving as well.
Still large differences in job numbers
Filled jobs by industry, 000s, national, March 2021
...and our reaction
- After a weaker period in February, job numbers have bounced back stronger in March and shrugged off most of the declines from Auckland’s brief stints at Alert Level 3.
- There are some signs of construction sector activity being constrained from too much further growth, with jobs growth in construction holding steadier in the last few months – a view consistent with what we’re hearing from the sector.
- Those groups, areas, and industries hardest-hit by the pandemic are showing better prospects moving forward, with declines in job numbers being clawed back in recent months. The boost in service sector employment is a good indicator of the resilience of our labour market.
- However, we are weary about reading too much into March’s better result after a fairly weak result in February. The volatility in the monthly employment indicators underscores our view that the labour market will navigate an uncertain path in 2021 as the economy adjusts.
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