Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Tue 2 Mar 2021)
Filled jobs unchanged
Total earnings fall 0.3%pa
Large losses in transport, postal and warehousing
The key numbers...
- Filled job numbers in January were unchanged from December 2020 (seasonally adjusted) and were up 0.2%pa from January 2020.
- Earnings on the other hand have slipped 0.3%pa.
- Employment in utilities and construction has grown the most, up by 6.5% and 5.6%pa respectively, highlighting how much housing and infrastructure building is in the pipeline.
- There are roughly 8,600 fewer jobs in transport, postal and warehousing compared to a year ago.
- Job numbers in agriculture, forestry, and fishing have also fallen more sharply than normal in January, with 740 fewer jobs compared with a year ago. Agricultural job numbers over previous months had consistently been up by more than 3,000 from a year earlier.
Examining job changes by industry
Filled jobs by industry, January 2021
...and our reaction
- Aggregate employment numbers have stagnated in recent months without a clear trend, while discrepancies between industries have either widened or remained firmly entrenched.
- Employment is ticking along fine for industries involved in the construction boom or aligned to the public sector.
- Employment in transport, accommodation, and entertainment-related services continues to be squeezed by the border closures and other COVID-19 responses.
- Indicators from these industries are only likely to get worse in the next few months as the flow-on effects from recent lockdowns hurt business cashflow and confidence, especially for firms in Auckland.
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