Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Mon 29 Mar 2021)
Filled jobs down 0.2%pa
Auckland jobs hit by Alert Level 3
Tourism industry jobs falter
The key numbers...
- Filled job numbers in February fell 0.2%pa, driven by a 0.7%pa fall in service sector jobs – this decline is the second annual fall in jobs numbers in the last decade (the first was in November 2020).
- Job numbers in Auckland are down by more than 6,100 from last February (-0.8%pa). Jobs numbers in Otago, Canterbury, and Marlborough are also in decline.
- However, Wellington and Waikato both saw job numbers rise by more than 2,500, and the number of jobs in Manawatū-Whanganui and Hawke’s Bay rose by over 1,000 each.
- The number of health jobs are nearly 11,500 higher than last year, and the construction sector is just shy of 10,000 additional roles. In contrast, transport, accommodation and food services, and administrative and support services have all lost over 8,000 jobs each since last February.
Industries show different paths
Filled jobs by industry, 000s, national, February 2021
...and our reaction
- Job numbers have remained stronger than expected throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, but there remains softness in the labour market as tourism activity remains constrained.
- Auckland’s yo-yoing through Alert Levels in February depressed the local labour market, with fewer roles added between January and February as usual, leading to a decline in job numbers on an annual basis.
- The divergence in labour market fortunes remains stark, with health and construction activity shifting further ahead. Manufacturing and transport activity has recovered some lost ground recently, but accommodation and food services and admin job numbers are still getting worse.
- Filled jobs numbers indicate the path forward for the labour market remains volatile, and although we don’t expect unemployment to spike above 6%, we do think unemployment will still bounce up and continue to move around in 2021.
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