Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Fri 29 Jan 2021)
Filled jobs up 0.6%pa in December
Wellington's workforce increased 2%pa
Better performance from tourism industries, but can it be sustained?
The key numbers...
- Filled jobs bounced back well in December, with 0.6%pa growth, recovering from the first annual fall in jobs in November.
- Wellington region has seen strong job figures in recent months, with 2.0%pa growth in December, with added just over 5,000 jobs. These new jobs in Wellington accounted for a third of net job creation. Waikato, Bay of Plenty, and Hawke’s Bay also saw consistent gains.
- Some of the weaker performers in November, like Auckland, turned around their declines to record reasonable growth in jobs in December. The hardest hit regions, Otago and Canterbury, are still showing annual declines, but the gap continues to narrow.
- December’s better performance was broad-based across ages. Although young people (especially young women) remain the hardest hit group despite clawing back some recovery.
- Job gains have been led by the health sector, with nearly 9,000 additional jobs in December compared to 2019. Construction added over 8,500 as construction levels remain solid, and the public sector also continued its strong run of growth.
- Transport, postal and warehousing jobs have halved the annual decline recorded in September. However, arts and recreation services, administration and support services, accommodation and foods services, and retail trade remain hard hit.
Jobs growth by industry
Annual change in filled jobs, December 2020
...and our reaction
- December job numbers are an encouraging sign that, although some areas and industries have been hit hard by COVID-19, they are still managing to limit job losses.
- Tourism-related job losses were more pronounced in November, and it appears some seasonal jobs took longer than normal to get going – likely as businesses adjusted their staff as domestic tourism demand became clearer over the holidays.
- We’re cautiously optimistic that tourism-related employment can limit job losses but note the potential for tourism related jobs to soften again through to March, as the impact of the lack of overseas visitors builds. Despite weekly consumer spending data showing a decline in card spending over November to January so far, the declines have been more muted than feared.
- The improved jobs numbers in December set the stage for a more upbeat labour market in 2021, compared to the concerns we harboured last year. The regional and industry-level differences make the uneven hit to the New Zealand clear to see, but the resilience in filled jobs so far helps support our more optimistic view for the economy.
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