Our take on the latest Car registrations (Thu 5 Nov 2020)
Total car registrations down 19%pa
New car registrations excluding rentals up 21%pa
Used car registrations down 16%pa
The key numbers...
- There were 18,059 passenger cars registered in October, down 19%pa.
- New car registrations were down by 22%pa, driven by the 3,693 fewer new rental cars registered in October 2020 compared with October 2019. Excluding rental cars, new car registrations increased 21%pa.
- Used car registrations were down 16%, driven by a decline in small used car registrations (under 1600cc), which were down 30%pa.
New car registrations, excl. rentals
Annual running total
...and our reaction
- Outside the rental car market, new car registrations are booming. When you can’t spend your savings on a luxury holiday overseas, why not buy a luxury car?
- Labour market data out yesterday put the unemployment rate at 5.3% in the September quarter, up from 4.0% in the June quarter. This increase is relatively modest considering the shock to the economy from COVID-19, and resilience in the labour market will be supporting the car market for now.
- Used car registrations continue to drop away driven by the lack of supply, particularly from Japan.
- Anecdotally, supply issues have been causing used car prices to increase in recent months. These price rises could be adding to the story of why new car registrations (excluding rentals) are booming, as people substitute away from relatively more expensive used cars.
- Bottlenecks in supply issues may also be more acute for used small cars, which have seen large drops. The argument for substitutability is reinforced by the drop in new small cars being relatively modest (down only 1.5%pa) compared with used small cars (down 30%pa).
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