Our take on the latest Car registrations (Fri 3 Jul 2020)
Total car registrations down 2.8%pa
New car registrations down 15%pa
Used car registrations up 7.0%pa
The key numbers...
- A total of 19,375 passenger cars were registered in June 2020, down 2.8%pa from June 2019, leaving total passenger car registrations for the June quarter 38%pa lower.
- The fall in new car registrations, down 15%pa (or 1,335), outstripped the increase in used car registrations which were up 7.0%pa (or 785).
- New large car registrations fell further, dropping 18%pa, while used large car registrations grew 14%pa.
- The 42%pa decline in new car registrations for the June quarter was similar to the 47%pa decline we forecast back in April. Used car registrations have fared better since lockdown, falling 35%pa in the June quarter.
- There is usually an initial bump up in rental car registrations in June, presumably for winter tourism. However, in June 2020 a total of 45 rental cars were registered compared with 1,134 registrations in June last year.
Total used car registrations
Annual running total
...and our reaction
- With the domestic economy now unrestricted, vehicle sales are picking up again although at a subdued rate.
- The stark contrast between registrations in the new and used car markets hints there is a shift in preferences towards second-hand vehicles as peoples’ earnings have been reduced.
- Looking ahead, the drop in car sales may not be as bad as we first predicted, particularly for used cars. However, we still see labour market conditions worsening as rising unemployment, coupled with the termination of the wage subsidy and the COVID-19 Income Relief Payment, keeps demand for vehicles subdued over the next few years.
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