Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Tue 28 Jul 2020)
Filled jobs rose by 2,053 in the June month
Wage subsidy extension still supporting nearly 437,000 jobs
Total earnings down 0.6%pa over the June quarter
The key numbers...
- Job numbers lifted again in June, up by 2,053 jobs to 2.196m. Compared to February 2020 (prior to the Level 4 Lockdown), filled jobs remain nearly 8,000 lower in seasonally adjusted terms.
- June was a positive month on the jobs front, with the return to Alert Level 1 boosting economic activity and employment, which helped earnings in the month to rise $864m (8.4%) from June 2019.
- However, over the three months since lockdown, total earnings remain $183m lower than a year ago.
- Young people are still bearing the brunt of job losses, with nearly 30,800 fewer filled jobs in June 2020 compared to February 2020 for those aged under 30, in contrast to a 26,800 increase in jobs for those aged 30+.
- As at 17 July, the wage subsidy extension was supporting 436,922 jobs where employers were still facing a 40% decline in revenue, even at Level 1.
Number of filled jobs
Seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- Job numbers across New Zealand continue to improve post-lockdown with the return towards more usual economic settings, and workplaces continues to open up without restrictions (other than border closures).
- Although this data still shows job numbers below pre-pandemic levels, Ministry of Social Development data highlights that unemployment benefit numbers have risen by nearly 66,000 in four months, pushing total unemployment support to over 210,000 people, even as the government has spent $13b on the wage subsidy.
- The wage subsidy extension is currently supporting nearly 437,000 jobs, with 45,000 of these jobs being totally new to the wage subsidy scheme over the past five weeks. Once the government’s support ends in September, we expect these jobs will be vulnerable and unemployment will rise further.
- Lower earnings across the economy, coupled with a lack of any real post-lockdown surge in spending, reflects the reality that household budgets will remain tighter in the coming months.
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