Real estate statistics

Housing market not in the clear just yet

14 Jul 2020

Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Tue 14 Jul 2020)

House sales rose 7.1%pa in June
House prices in June down 0.5% (sa) from March
Fewer houses for sale in the market

The key numbers...

  • House prices in June were 8.6%pa higher than a year prior. Prices have almost recovered to their pre-lockdown level, sitting just 0.5% below their March levels (seasonally adjusted).
  • The number of houses sold in June were up 7.1%pa from a year earlier. However, most of this growth is likely playing catch up from the lack of activity through the Level 4 lockdown. Sales were still down 21%pa over the two months of May and June, during the period post-Level 4 lockdown.
  • There is still considerably hesitancy in the market from sellers, with the number of houses for sale still down nearly 12%pa from June last year, with rebounding demand but lacking supply pushing up house prices.

REINZ House Price Index

Seasonally adjusted
3640

...and our reaction

  • Although prices are still sitting below their pre-lockdown levels, we are currently seeing signs of a recovery. However, it is important to note that the economy is being supported by the wage subsidy and mortgage holiday scheme.
  • We have seen the rental market being hit more immediately than housing, with rents dropping in areas hardest hit by tourism declines. We will be watching closely to examine if the housing market follows once artificial support is removed from the economy.
  • A brief rebound in the housing market coming out of lockdown was to be expected. We still expect house prices to begin to soften as these stimulus measures come to an end, and household budget pressures bite. Extensions to either policy will likely slow the onset of downwards pressure in the housing market.