Residential building consents

Consents playing catch up

1 Jul 2020

Our take on the latest Residential building consents (Wed 1 Jul 2020)

Residential dwelling consents
3,554
In May 2020
Consent in May rebound from lockdown
But total consents down 9.2%pa in the three months to May 2020

The key numbers...

  • Residential consents bounced back from lockdown, with 3,554 new consents issued in May 2020. In seasonally adjusted terms, this result is up 36% from lockdown in April.
  • There is evidence of a temporary recovery to more regular consenting levels, with May’s seasonally adjusted consents in line with the average seen in early 2020, prior to the pandemic.
  • The number of consents issued in the three months to May are still down 9.2%pa from a year prior, suggesting that despite a strong month, the underlying trend for consents remains softer.
  • It is important to note that although consents in May were still down 4.6%pa from a year earlier, May 2019 was the strongest month for consents since 1974, which clouds the picture.

Residential dwelling consents

Seasonally adjusted
3637

...and our reaction

  • Some of the consents issued in May likely represent consents already in the pipeline as councils work through a backlog of applications.
  • It is important to reiterate that consents are only an intention to build. Actual construction activity will give us a clearer read of activity in the coming months.
  • As we begin to feel the effects of the downturn hitting households’ budgets, many of these consents may not turn into activity.
  • We expect residential consents to continue to soften over the coming year, with tighter credit conditions and stretched household budgets pushing development activity lower.