Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Mon 29 Jun 2020)
Job numbers rise, but still down 23,000 (sa) from February 2020
Earnings decline by $1.4b from May 2019
Young people struggling the most
The key numbers...
- Total filled jobs recovered some ground in May, with a rise in seasonally adjusted terms of 17,000 jobs from April. However, compared to February 2020 (prior to the Level 4 Lockdown), job numbers are still down by 23,000 in seasonally adjusted terms.
- Total earnings have fallen steeply, down $1.4b from a year earlier, as pay cuts and the only-partial support of the wage subsidy hit incomes.
- On a per-job basis, monthly earnings declined by 13%pa, the largest drop on record over the last 20 years.
- Young people have been the hardest hit, with those aged under 30 showing a 4.2% decline in actual job numbers compared to February, whereas job numbers for those aged 30 and above increased 1.5%.
Total earnings decline
Annual change in monthly earnings, $m
...and our reaction
- The rise in job numbers post-lockdown is not particularly surprising, as a return towards “normal” occurs and more people get back to work.
- The wage subsidy is still masking the full impacts of the economic downturn, but the rising numbers of people supported by the wage subsidy show conditions are still tough for businesses. More than 200,000 workers are now covered by the wage subsidy extension, and there has been a resurgence in wage subsidy coverage in recent weeks.
- Since March 20 more than 50,000 additional people have entered onto a government benefit. Even with job numbers having partly recovered from the steep drop in April, there are still a considerable number of Kiwis out of work.
- Although some indicators show improving economic activity, New Zealand’s outlook is still finely balanced. Substantial temporary support still exists in the economy, and the global economic position continue to threaten New Zealand’s economic fortunes.
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