Non-residential building consents

Largest fall on record

2 Jun 2020

Our take on the latest Non-residential building consents (Tue 2 Jun 2020)

Value of non-res consents
$363m
In April 2020
Total non-residential consents fell 60%pa in April
Public consents dropped 87%pa in April

The key numbers...

  • The total value of non-residential consents slumped 60%pa in April, the largest monthly fall on record.
  • April 2019 was the highest ever monthly total of consents, and so exaggerates the drop. In seasonally adjusted terms, the fall between March and April is only 7.2%.
  • Nevertheless, after stripping out building cost inflation, April’s result is still the lowest monthly total for consents since late 2013.
  • Hospital building, social, cultural, and religious building, and hostel building consents had the biggest falls, down 77%, 87%, and 93%pa respectively. The declines in hospital and social, cultural, and religious building were in line with our expectations.
  • Public consents were down 87% from April last year, while private consents were down by 37%pa.

Value of consents granted

Year-end % change
3625

...and our reaction

  • Back in April 2019 non-residential construction consents were the highest volume of consents we had on record. A retreat from this peak in 2020 was expected, even before COVID-19 occurred.
  • The decline in private sector consents is actually rather modest considering we were in Level 4 lockdown for most of April. Public consents, though more volatile, have been disastrous in the past two months.
  • We expect the drop-off to get worse in the private space as low business confidence and uncertainty about the future make large investment projects less appetising. Consents issued in April are likely to have been lodged before the lockdown, and worst of the economic downturn, began.