Our take on the latest Retail trade survey (Fri 22 May 2020)
Seasonally adjusted retail volumes down 0.7% from December
Supermarket and grocery spending up 7.9%pa
Accommodation retail volumes down 8.2%pa
The key numbers...
- Retail trade volumes fell 0.7% in the March quarter, meaning that annual growth slowed from 3.3% in December 2019 to 2.3%pa.
- Supermarket spending grew 7.9%pa, electronic spending grew 15%pa, and spending on liquor grew 9.7%pa as the nation stocked up before the Level 4 lockdown started on March 25.
- Retail spending on accommodation and food and beverage services fell 8.2% and 6.7%pa respectively, with the hospitality industry already feeling the burn from travel restrictions.
- Motor vehicles and fuel retailing also declined 5.6% and 1.4%pa respectively.
The quarter's big movers
Contribution to % change in retail volume
...and our reaction
- Supermarket spending, the largest component of retail spending, grew at the fastest rate we have seen in nearly 15 years, making up for declines in many other storetypes.
- The June quarter will be the worst quarter on record, with a provisional retail sales index from StatsNZ showing spending in April 2020 was 80% below spending in April 2019.
- April will be the worst month in 2020 because that was when the majority of the Level 4 lockdown was in place. But retail will continue to suffer from zero tourism and trading restrictions in place during level two, especially businesses that rely on a high volume of customers for their revenue.
- Consumption behaviours are likely to remain weak throughout the next two years, with spending on durables and non-essential items taking the biggest hit.
Latest updates
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Retail trade survey
Core retail volumes grow slower as consumers adjust to elevated fuel prices
Mon 24 Aug 2026
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-0.5% Total retail sales volumes in the June 2026 quarter (seas. adj.)+0.7% Core retail sales volumes in the June 2026 quarter (seas. adj.)+6.5%pa South Island core retail sales in the June 2026 quarterPremium
Retail trade survey
Anxious consumers pull back on discretionary spending
Fri 22 May 2026
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1.0% Core retail sales volumes in the March 2026 quarter (seas. adj.)8 of 13 core industries recorded quarterly rises (seas. adj.)-4.8% Clothing, footwear in the March 2026 quarter (seas. adj.)Retail trade survey
Retail spending continues to strengthen
Mon 23 Feb 2026
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1.5% Core retail sales volumes in December (seas. adj.)11 of 13 core industries recorded quarterly rises (seas. adj.)South Island continues to lead the recoveryRetail trade survey
Retail spending recovery gaining traction
Thu 27 Nov 2025
Quarterly
Core retail sales volumes up 1.2% in September (seas. adj.)
Seven of 13 core industries saw quarterly rises (seas. adj.)North Island growth starting to follow the South’s lead