Non-residential building consents

Calm before the storm

31 Mar 2020

Our take on the latest Non-residential building consents (Tue 31 Mar 2020)

Value of non-res consents
$481m
In February 2020
Total non-residential consents fell 19%pa in February
Retail consents grew 139%pa in February

The key numbers...

  • The value of non-residential consents dropped 19%pa in February. Though a sizeable drop, it’s not as large as the 23%pa decline in November 2019.
  • Consents in education and warehouse building fell the furthest, down 77% and 67%pa respectively.
  • The decline in consents was seen broadly across private and public sectors, with consents falling 18% and 23%pa respectively.
  • Auckland had a poor month with consent values declining by 45%pa (or $138m), which was greater than the $114m decline nationwide. Most of Auckland’s decline was driven by weak education building consents in the region.

Value of consents granted

$ million
3555

...and our reaction

  • COVID-19 didn’t appear to be affecting investment intentions much in the non-residential space during February, as the decline wasn’t outside our expectations of softening non-residential construction.
  • New Zealand’s first confirmed COVID-19 case wasn’t until February 28 and self-isolation restrictions didn’t begin until March 15. The pandemic was still largely seen as China’s issue throughout most of February.
  • The delay between consents and code of compliance will be stretched out further now that all construction has been put on hold. Many proposed projects will also be scratched as businesses focus on survival rather than investment, and demand for office and retail space is likely to be significantly negative affected.
  • Looking beyond the lockdown, tourism will take a long time to recover, making recent strength in hotel and hostel consents an unfortunate timing.