Residential building consents

A slow(ish) start to the new year

4 Mar 2020

Our take on the latest Residential building consents (Wed 4 Mar 2020)

Annual dwelling consents
37,606
As of January 2020
Total new dwelling consents up 2.7%pa in January
Townhouse consents up 47%pa in January

The key numbers...

  • Residential consent growth in January eased from previous rates, with only an additional 68 consents granted compared with January 2019.
  • Nevertheless, the three-month average percentage change for total consents remains healthy at 8.5%.
  • Townhouse consents in Auckland grew 93%pa January, a lift that was almost solely responsible for the national growth of 47%pa in townhouse consents.
  • However, apartment and retirement consents didn’t have the same vigour, down 29% and 42%pa respectively. Auckland recorded a 68%pa decline in apartment consents.
  • Canterbury was the overachiever in January, with 155 more dwelling consents compared to January 2019.

Consents by dwelling type

Annual running total
3544

...and our reaction

  • The drop in apartment consents is in line with our expectations, particularly in Auckland, where there has been strong growth over the previous four years.
  • However, the number of new dwelling consents can vary considerably month-to-month as multi-unit dwellings consents from large projects sway the data. This is particularly true for apartments and retirement homes.
  • Although consent growth was soft for January, the underlying conditions that are driving consent growth remain relatively unchanged.
  • House price growth has ticked up in recent months and could encourage more sustained strength in residential development than we have been forecasting for 2020.