Non-residential building consents
Non-res consents disappoint again in June
30 Jul 2019
Our take on the latest Non-residential building consents (Tue 30 Jul 2019)
Value of non-res consents
$503m
In June 2019
Non-res consents down 5.2%pa in June
Auckland consents down 30%pa
The key numbers...
- June’s weak result means that non-residential consents fell well short of our expectations for the quarter, with only accommodation and education consents exceeding our forecasts.
- Projects still in the pipeline mean that we expect growth in consents to return in the September quarter, but this pick-up is likely to be short-lived.
- Weak business confidence and low investment intentions are sapping strength from private sector consents, and we predict that declines in private sector work will be the dominant trend in overall activity during 2020 and 2021.
Non-residential consents by sector
Annual running totals, Jun 2019 $b
...and our reaction
- Despite a 13% rebound in the total value of non-residential consents between May and June (seasonally adjusted), consents were still down 5.2% from a year earlier.
- Warehouse building was the biggest contributor to the annual decline in consents, with drops in activity between $11m and $12m for both Howick and Christchurch.
- Falls in retail building consents, particularly in central Auckland, and office consents also contributed to the decline in activity compared with June 2018.
- Hostel and education building were up significantly from a year earlier, thanks to work at Waikeria Prison near Ōtorohanga and Linwood High School in Christchurch.
- Auckland’s monthly consent total of $176m in June was the lowest for any month since February 2018.
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