Our take on the latest Retail trade survey (Wed 22 May 2019)
Total retail volumes increased 3.3%pa
Zero growth in accomodation retail volumes
Core retail volumes grew 3.9%pa
The key numbers...
- Consumers are continuing to increase their spending, but the underlying trend in growth appears to be softening, and the spending patterns have changed since last quarter. Spending in department stores and DIY activity increased, while accommodation spending slumped.
- The bounce-back in automotive-related industries is a response to the decline in fuel prices since October 2018.
- A slight easing in retail spending growth is not particularly concerning and had been expected given slowing population growth. Most industries are still showing solid growth in sales volumes.
Retail sales volumes
Excluding automotive sales
...and our reaction
- Total volume growth in the retail industry was 3.3%pa in the March 2019 quarter, slightly down from 3.5%pa in the December 2018 quarter.
- Consumer spending in the accommodation industry stalled, in the March 2019 quarter. Growth was 7.4%pa in the previous quarter, and this volatility reflects capacity pressures in the tourism sector during the peak summer months.
- There was notable growth in department stores, homeware, and hardware, with annual growth of 13%, 4.0% and 5.6% respectively.
- Fuel sales volumes grew (1.1%pa) for the first time in over two years, while motor vehicles and parts retail volumes grew by 0.7%pa.
Latest updates
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1.5% Core retail sales volumes in December (seas. adj.)11 of 13 core industries recorded quarterly rises (seas. adj.)South Island continues to lead the recoveryRetail trade survey
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