Non-residential building consents
Pipeline of non-residential consents continues
2 May 2019
Our take on the latest Non-residential building consents (Thu 2 May 2019)
Series name
$672m
In March 2019
Auckland consents down $57m from March 2018
Factory consents down $93m from March 2018
The key numbers...
- Despite the decline in consent values in March, total activity for the quarter came in above our forecasts for most building types, indicating an ongoing pipeline of work for the industry.
- Even with a softer result in the March month, Auckland remains the biggest regional driver of consent growth. Capacity pressures in the region continue to hang over the industry’s ability to convert these consents into completed work.
- Growth in activity outside the rest of the country (excluding Canterbury) reflects the tail end of strong economic conditions over the last 3-4 years.
- We are currently forecasting a peak in annual consents in September 2019, with weak business confidence and slower economic and employment growth dragging activity lower during 2020.
The sectors to watch
Contribution to annual % change, three months ended Mar-19
...and our reaction
- The monthly value of non-residential consents was down 5.9% ($42m) from March last year and 5.2% (seasonally adjusted) from February’s strong result.
- Consents in Auckland dropped $57m from last March, primarily due to declines in factory, hotel, and social, cultural, and religious consents.
- The value of consents in Canterbury fell $37m, pulled down by reductions in Christchurch in shop, office, and social, cultural, and religious consents.
- Bay of Plenty, Otago, and Wellington all recorded increases in consent values of over $20m compared with March 2018.
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