Non-residential building consents

Auckland drives non-residential's last hurrah

29 Mar 2019

Our take on the latest Non-residential building consents (Fri 29 Mar 2019)

Value of non-res consents
$596m
In February 2019
Auckland consents up $168m from February 2018
Education building up $92m from February 2018

The key numbers...

  • Non-residential consents are broadly in line with our expectations for the March quarter, and a good result for the March month would see activity beat our forecasts.
  • The recent concentration of consent growth in Auckland is concerning given the industry’s pre-existing difficulties with completing work in the region on time. Capacity pressures remain intense, particularly given the collapse and withdrawal of firms previously operating in the vertical construction space.
  • Low business confidence and weak investment intentions are being reinforced by slowing economic growth. We expect that these conditions will see non-residential consents peak later in 2019 and decline throughout 2020.

Value of consents granted

Annual total, $bn
3156

...and our reaction

  • Monthly non-residential consents in February were at their second-highest level in the last 11 months (seasonally adjusted).
  • Activity in Auckland was again strong, with consents in the last four months up 52% on the same period a year earlier. In contrast, activity around the rest of New Zealand was up just 3.0%.
  • After a brief rally in the final quarter of 2018, non-residential consents in Canterbury are declining again. The region’s $109m of consents in January and February is Canterbury’s lowest two-month total in seven years.
  • Education and storage consents were both strong in February. Work at the University of Auckland and Balmoral School in Mt Eden were key contributors to education building, while a car handling facility at Ports of Auckland and a lift in consents in Christchurch underpinned the increase in storage building.