Our take on the latest Retail trade survey (Mon 25 Feb 2019)
Total retail volumes increased 3.5%pa
Core retail volumes growth picked up to 5.0%pa
Year-end retail spending growth slowed back to a 5-year low
The key numbers...
- Recent volatility in quarterly retail activity, alongside variable petrol prices and mixed consumer confidence results, make it difficult to be certain about the near-term outlook for spending.
- Nevertheless, we believe that the slower year-end growth in both values and volumes reinforces our view that consumer spending is likely to weaken further during 2019.
- Household and tourism spending appears to be more resilient than expected, with the pick-up in growth for discretionary spending and food and beverage sales indicating there is still some willingness to spend.
Retail trade volumes
Year-end annual % changes
...and our reaction
- Quarterly growth of 2.0% in core retail volumes (excluding automotive sales) boosted annual growth to 5.0%pa, the fastest pace in a year.
- However, a stronger December quarter wasn’t enough to make up for a weak September, with year-end growth slowing to 4.5%pa, the slowest since the end of 2014.
- A range of sectors showed renewed growth, with clothing and footwear up 4.1% over the quarter (sa), electrical and electronic goods up 4.6%, and pharmaceutical and other store-based retailing up 8.2%. Food and beverage services grew 4.2% over the quarter (sa), the strongest growth on record (since 2003).
Latest updates
Premium
Retail trade survey
Core retail volumes grow slower as consumers adjust to elevated fuel prices
Mon 24 Aug 2026
Quarterly
-0.5% Total retail sales volumes in the June 2026 quarter (seas. adj.)+0.7% Core retail sales volumes in the June 2026 quarter (seas. adj.)+6.5%pa South Island core retail sales in the June 2026 quarterPremium
Retail trade survey
Anxious consumers pull back on discretionary spending
Fri 22 May 2026
Quarterly
1.0% Core retail sales volumes in the March 2026 quarter (seas. adj.)8 of 13 core industries recorded quarterly rises (seas. adj.)-4.8% Clothing, footwear in the March 2026 quarter (seas. adj.)Retail trade survey
Retail spending continues to strengthen
Mon 23 Feb 2026
Quarterly
1.5% Core retail sales volumes in December (seas. adj.)11 of 13 core industries recorded quarterly rises (seas. adj.)South Island continues to lead the recoveryRetail trade survey
Retail spending recovery gaining traction
Thu 27 Nov 2025
Quarterly
Core retail sales volumes up 1.2% in September (seas. adj.)
Seven of 13 core industries saw quarterly rises (seas. adj.)North Island growth starting to follow the South’s lead