Non-residential building consents

Office construction remains soft

4 Feb 2019

Our take on the latest Non-residential building consents (Mon 4 Feb 2019)

Value of non-res consents
$525m
In December 2018
Office consents dropped 21%pa in the December quarter
Storage consent values rose 39%pa in the December quarter

The key numbers...

  • Coming in below our estimate, overall non-residential consent growth remains softer, with continued capacity constraints a barrier to further expansion.
  • Office building remains a poor performer, and our expectations are for office construction to be weaker than we previously expected throughout the next five years as demand for more space in Auckland and Christchurch softens.

The sectors to watch

Contribution to annual % change, three months ended Dec-18
3105

...and our reaction

  • Total non-residential consent values rose 9.0%pa in the year to 2018, driven by an 11% rise in new consent values assisted by 2.0%pa growth in alterations and additions.
  • An additional $33m in consented storage projects in Christchurch drove a $58m rise in overall storage consents, sending growth rocketing to 215%pa.
  • Office consents were down 50%pa in December, with consent values $63m less than in December 2017. This drop was driven by falls in Tauranga, Albany, and Christchurch (down $27m, $23m, and $12m respectively), even as Palmerston North softened the blow with an additional $14m in office consents.