Our take on the latest Car registrations (Thu 7 Feb 2019)
Car registrations down 12%pa as of January 2019
12th consecutive monthly decline in used car registrations
3rd consecutive monthly decline in new car registrations
The key numbers...
- Slowing population growth and softer consumer spending have put the brakes on new car registrations. We expect new car registrations to start picking up again in the next few months, but with lead indicators of consumer spending (such as electronic card transactions) showing continued weakness, the risks are on the downside.
- With the stinkbug season in full swing and expected to continue until March, used car registrations are falling faster than new car registrations. We expect the end of the stinkbug season to be followed by a near-term recovery in used car registrations as continued (albeit slower) population growth adds momentum to sales.
- Three-quarters of January’s annual drop in new car registrations was in registrations of new rental cars. Rental companies are cautious about renewing and extending their fleets in the face of falling international tourism arrivals from key markets such as China and Japan.
Rental car registrations
Monthly totals
...and our reaction
- In January 2019, compared with a year earlier, used car registrations fell 15% and new car registrations fell 7.9%.
- The largest annual fall was in used large car registrations, down 21% in January 2019 compared with a year earlier. Over the same period, used small cars were down 11%, new large cars were down 2.3% and new small cars were down 15%.
- Rental car registrations tend to be highest in the spring and summer months as rental companies renew and extend their fleets during the busiest tourist season. Registrations of rental cars from September 2018 to January 2019 were down 18% on the same period a year earlier.
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