Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Thu 17 Jan 2019)
Lowest Auckland monthly sales since October 2010 (sa)
Auckland house prices fell 1.7%pa
NZ house prices (excluding Auckland) rose 8.0%pa
The key numbers...
- Government policy changes last year, extending the bright-line test for capital gains and banning foreign buyers, are hitting sales. However, another change in policy – reduced loan-to-value ratio restrictions – may well breathe some life back into sales this year.
- Vendors don’t appear to be willing to lower their asking prices, holding down sales volumes as their asking price remains above what the market will pay. Only vendors under any compulsion to sell are likely to lower their prices – and few vendors are currently in that situation.
- Housing affordability remains an issue for many buyers, with high house prices and anecdotal evidence that mortgage lenders are focusing more on purchasers’ ability to service their loans, in anticipation of lending rates rising in 2020.
Number of houses sold
Real Estate Institute
...and our reaction
- House sales were poor in December 2018, with Auckland sales the lowest since October 2010, NZ sales the lowest since April 2014, and Wellington sales the lowest since August 2014 (all seasonally adjusted).
- All but four regions saw annual declines in house sales – and the four that saw gains are smaller markets. Although Auckland sales fell 24%pa in December, other parts of NZ also experienced sharp drops, including Wellington (down 16%pa), Otago (down 15%pa), and Canterbury (down 7.6%pa).
- House prices across NZ are maintaining a two-track race: Auckland prices dropped 1.7%pa in December 2018, while NZ prices (excluding Auckland) rose 8.0%pa. It seems that the housing markets outside of Auckland are still in catch-up mode, even as Auckland prices are pulling back from their peak.
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