Our take on the latest Retail trade survey (Tue 27 Nov 2018)
Total retail volumes unchanged (sa)
Retail sales volumes up 2.7% from September 2017
Total retail sales values up 0.6% (sa)
The key numbers...
- Stagnant retail sales volumes indicate households are holding back on spending as costs such as fuel increase.
- Retail sales volumes backs up lower consumer confidence – consumers aren’t yet pessimistic about their outlook but are more circumspect about their future spending intentions.
- Growth in household spending is expected to moderate over the coming year, although the drop in fuel prices during October and November will provide some short-term relief for consumers’ budgets.
Retail trade volumes
...and our reaction
- Annual growth in sales volumes is at its weakest since 2012.
- The value of spending on fuel increased as higher fuel prices from the Auckland regional fuel tax and international crude prices hit motorists in the pocket.
- Motor vehicle and parts volumes fell 2.3% from last quarter (seasonally adjusted), continuing a weaker trend in motor vehicle results.
- Slower tourist growth hit spending this quarter, with accommodation spending volumes growth slowing to 1.6% (seasonally adjusted) and food and beverage services falling 3.3% from the June quarter (seasonally adjusted).
Latest updates
Premium
Retail trade survey
Core retail volumes grow slower as consumers adjust to elevated fuel prices
Mon 24 Aug 2026
Quarterly
-0.5% Total retail sales volumes in the June 2026 quarter (seas. adj.)+0.7% Core retail sales volumes in the June 2026 quarter (seas. adj.)+6.5%pa South Island core retail sales in the June 2026 quarterPremium
Retail trade survey
Anxious consumers pull back on discretionary spending
Fri 22 May 2026
Quarterly
1.0% Core retail sales volumes in the March 2026 quarter (seas. adj.)8 of 13 core industries recorded quarterly rises (seas. adj.)-4.8% Clothing, footwear in the March 2026 quarter (seas. adj.)Retail trade survey
Retail spending continues to strengthen
Mon 23 Feb 2026
Quarterly
1.5% Core retail sales volumes in December (seas. adj.)11 of 13 core industries recorded quarterly rises (seas. adj.)South Island continues to lead the recoveryRetail trade survey
Retail spending recovery gaining traction
Thu 27 Nov 2025
Quarterly
Core retail sales volumes up 1.2% in September (seas. adj.)
Seven of 13 core industries saw quarterly rises (seas. adj.)North Island growth starting to follow the South’s lead