Articles

Renters across New Zealand are feeling the squeeze as annual new rentals inflation reaches 5.1%pa. Excluding the mid-2022 peak, annual average rental inflation over the year to February 2024 is at its fastest rate since this series began in 2008.

Rapidly declining export prices have ramped up the pressure on New Zealand exporters and pushed our terms of trade to a seven-year low. Export prices were down by 13%pa in the December 2023 quarter, the largest annual decline since 2009. In comparison, import prices fell a much smaller 2.2%pa.

Rapid and widespread inflation, caused by supply-chain issues during the pandemic and higher demand for goods and services as interest rates fell, has clobbered the global economy over the last three years.

This article outlines how the Israel-Gaza conflict is impacting freight prices, and the implications for New Zealand. Freight prices had been steadily declining since mid-2021 as pandemic-related supply-chain issues dissipated, but picked up sharply in January.

Wholesale interest rates fell sharply last week, with the two-year swap rate falling 29 basis points on 14 December. Rates are now sitting at a nine-month low, adding downward pressure to retail interest rates.

This article explores recent patterns in domestic or internal migration between 2021 and 2022 using a new dataset from Stats NZ, exploring potential factors that shape the flow of Kiwis throughout the country.

Record high net migration over the past year has been a lifeboat for New Zealand’s economic growth, dominating recent trends in employment, housing demand, and demography. Quarterly net migration is now beginning to soften from its early 2023 peak as migrant arrivals grow slower, and departures from New Zealand accelerate.

Global diesel prices have surged significantly over the last few months. Driven largely by supply constraints, our Chart of the Month shows how this surge has led to a significant import cost premium over petrol. Elevated diesel prices will have ripple effects throughout both the global and local economies, and risk inflation remaining higher for longer.

A constrained global supply of diesel has led to a substantial increase in prices over the last few months, both for importers, and at the pump. Higher diesel costs threaten to intensify inflationary pressures, with geopolitical concerns adding further upside risk. In this article, we outline the issues facing the current diesel market, and the outlook over the remainder of 2023 and into 2024.

For almost forty years, Infometrics has provided predictions across a range of building indicators to both government and private business clients. With activity across the broader economy under pressure, and the construction industry at a turning point, the need for reliable estimates of both the duration and magnitude of the emerging downturn is especially critical.