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Conditions in the labour market have deteriorated over the past 18-24 months, as the unemployment rate has risen from 4.0% in December 2023 to 5.1% just a year later. The unemployment rate has continued to rise in 2025, reaching 5.3% in the September quarter, up from 5.2% in June.

The mix of light passenger vehicles that make up New Zealand’s fleet has been changing in many ways over the past two decades.

Inflation data for the September quarter was released earlier this week, showing an increase in the annual inflation rate from 2.7% to 3.0%. Inflation is now sitting at the top of the Reserve Bank’s 1-3%pa target band.

The Reserve Bank’s August Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) included a shift in where the official cash rate (OCR) is expected to trough, with the Bank’s OCR projections now bottoming out at 2.55% in March 2026.

Last week the government announced the next steps for replacing petrol tax with electronic road user charges (RUCs). These changes have been signalled in the past, including as part of the governments’ 2025Q2 action plan in April.

Late last month the Reserve Bank released its latest Monetary Policy Statement, which included forecast scenarios based on different ways the ongoing trade war could evolve and effect the New Zealand economy.

Last Wednesday’s labour market statistics release from Stats NZ showed the unemployment rate remained at 5.1%, below market expectations of 5.2-5.3%. We are nearing the trough in the labour market, which is likely to see the unemployment rate peak during the current June 2025 quarter.

There has been endless news on the current unprecedented trade war between the US and the rest of the world. The effects on US consumers and the US economy should not be understated, and forecasts incorporating current policy paint a depressing outlook for the US.

The fallout from the trade war has stolen headlines over the past week, as Kiwis worry about their plummeting KiwiSaver balances amid the global share market selloff. One of the key questions that always emerges from a major global economic event is “what does this mean for interest rates?”

US President Donald Trump has imposed a series of tariffs upon major US trading partners to encourage more American manufacturing, as well as to pressure its neighbours to shore up border security to prevent illegal immigrants and fentanyl entering the US.