Costs from grocery suppliers to supermarkets increase 2.3%pa in January

The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets moderated slightly in the year to January, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI) showing an average 2.3% increase in what suppliers charged in January 2026, compared to a year earlier.

“January’s result was slightly slower than what was recorded in December 2025,” said Infometrics Chief Executive and Principal Economist Brad Olsen.

“The usual summer cost change moratorium limits the number of cost changes over December and January, with only more seasonal and perishable items seeing movement.”

Moratoriums are used by many companies and industries to minimise system changes during peak trading periods, helping to reduce disruption for customers over the holidays. “Due to the moratorium, the number of cost increases in January was the lowest in three years,” said Mr Olsen.

“Due to the summer cost moratorium, it’s still too early to read much into the slower increase in the Index over January - especially given mixed outcomes globally from the recent lift in dairy prices. Lingering concerns remain around cost pressures in 2026, with continuing domestic inflationary momentum. Despite this concern, international cost pressures are more restrained.”

The Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI), commissioned by Foodstuffs New Zealand, measures the change in the list cost of grocery goods charged by suppliers to the Foodstuffs North Island and Foodstuffs South Island co-operatives. The Index utilises detailed Foodstuffs NZ data across over 60,000 products the Foodstuffs co-ops buy to stock in their 500+ stores, making it the largest dataset of its type in New Zealand, to give a real-time view on supplier cost changes.

Every month, the Index tracks what it costs supermarkets to buy the goods to put on the shelf. Previous analysis shows that supplier costs are the major component of supermarket prices, representing two-thirds of the on-shelf price.

Supplier costs rose across all but one department in January, year on year. “Unchanged monthly costs for meat and dairy saw the annual growth rate for costs in these departments slow, although that trend will adjust further as cost changes begin again from next month,” said Mr Olsen. “Fish costs rose further in January, with more mixed changes across produce. Some items, like kiwifruit, cauliflower, and not-in-season fruits saw costs rise. More in-season options, like cherries, plums, and peaches, saw costs fall as supply remained plentiful.”

Month on month, nearly 1,350 products increased in cost from December 2025 to January 2026. “This result was the lowest monthly total since the start of 2023. Most departments recorded no changes in January, due to the summer cost change moratorium,” said Mr Olsen. “Changes for chilled foods were notably lower in January due to the moratorium, but produce changes continued. There were a variety of increases and decreases for different produce costs.”

ENDS

Note:

The Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI), commissioned by Foodstuffs New Zealand, measures the change in the list cost of grocery goods charged by suppliers to the Foodstuffs North and South Island cooperatives.

List cost refers to the cost suppliers charge retailers before trade spend is applied; trade spend being any form of discount provided by a supplier to allow their goods to be discounted.

The Index utilises detailed Foodstuffs NZ data, across over 60,000 products, analysed by independent economics consultancy Infometrics to produce the GSCI and publish it on a monthly basis. For more details see economics.infometrics.co.nz/report/grocery-supplier-cost-index.