We start 2026 in much the same position as 2025: surveying a suite of patchy economic data, some of which provides hope for better conditions in the coming year, but with other indicators mixed in that are less positive. Last year’s expectations of a recovery were based on orthodox assumptions around the effects of lower interest rates and higher export prices. Although those drivers have progressed further and the weight of money should show through more strongly in 2026, there is also an argument that the most significant stimulus should already have occurred, and the economy hasn’t really responded. In other words, forecasting an economic recovery during 2026 feels like just as much of an act of faith as it did for 2025 – if not more.
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