How achievable is the Government’s international student target?

The recovery in international student enrolments is well underway, but New Zealand still has some distance to go before we surpass pre-COVID levels, and even further before we hit the Government’s target of 119,000 international student enrolments by 2034. Here we unpack the uneven recovery to date and assess the likelihood of the Government’s target being met.

The recovery in international student numbers has been a little underwhelming so far. In 2024, international student enrolments reached just under 83,500, representing 72% of the 115,700 enrolments in 2019, and 63% of the 131,800 enrolments when international student numbers peaked in 2016.

Auckland continues to dominate the international student market in New Zealand, as it did pre-COVID. In 2024, 54% of international student enrolments were enrolled at education providers in Auckland, 10% in Canterbury, 7.1% in Waikato, 6.4% in Wellington, and 4.6% in Otago. The remaining regions had a share of students at 3% or less.

Chart 1 shows that international student enrolments at providers in Auckland in 2024 were at 71% of 2019 levels. Canterbury and Wellington were some way behind on 62%, with Otago lagging further, at 59%. In contrast, Waikato was well ahead of Auckland on 78%.1

Auckland’s dominance means it has a greater influence on the national average than any other region. If we are aiming to surpass pre-COVID enrolments, much of the growth will need to happen in Auckland.

In 2024, 40% of international student enrolments were at universities, 16% were at secondary schools in years 9-13, 12% were at English language schools, 12% were at polytechnics, and 12% were at funded private training establishments (PTEs).

Chart 2 shows that enrolments at universities and funded PTEs in 2024 were close to pre-COVID (2019) levels, and secondary years 9-13 enrolments were at 76%. In contrast, both polytechnics and English language schools still have considerable room for recovery. Although, with several polytechnics undergoing structural downsizing in preparation for the disestablishment of Te Pūkenga, their capacity to enrol more international students could be limited for the time being.

Data on the level of qualification being studied by international students is available for those enrolled at universities, polytechnics, wānanga and funded PTEs. Just over one-third (36%) of enrolments at these providers in 2024 were at Bachelors level 7, and just over one-quarter (26%) were at Masters level 9.

Comparing 2024 enrolments with 2019, Masters level 9 enrolments were at 185% of pre-COVID levels, and Bachelors level 7 enrolments were at 94%. So, there is limited room for further recovery at Bachelors level 7, but there’s more headroom for recovery at other, less popular, levels. Chart 3 shows that enrolments for Certificates and Diplomas across levels 5-8 are sitting at just 26-44% of pre-COVID levels, and together they made up just 13% of enrolments in 2024.

Post study work rights for international students differ depending on the level they have studied at. Since November 2022, people who studied at non-degree levels 4-7 must have studied a qualification that is on the 'Qualifications Eligible for a Post Study Work Visa' list and these people may only work in a field directly linked to their area of study. The qualifications on the list relate to construction, engineering, telecommunications, farming, automotive, school teacher, and early childhood teacher subject areas. No such restrictions apply to international students studying at degree level 7 or above. The tighter post-study work rights for people who study at non-degree levels 4-7 might well be the key factor stifling the recovery.

With 34% of all international student enrolments in 2024, China remains our key market, followed by India (14%) and Japan (9.2%). All other countries each made up less than 5% of enrolments. And there’s plenty of room for recovery in each of those three key markets. Comparing 2024 enrolments with 2019, Chinese enrolments were at 75% of pre-COVID levels, Indian enrolments were at 69%, and Japanese enrolments were at 73%. Enrolments from 44 relatively minor markets as diverse as Bhutan, Venezuela, Ethiopia, and Latvia were at or above pre-COVID levels.

International students contributed more than $3.6bn to the New Zealand economy in 2024, with each student spending on average $45,000 at local businesses across the year. They also have a significant positive impact on education providers’ finances. During the pandemic, when the New Zealand border was closed to international students, many universities and other tertiary providers were forced to cut jobs, partly as a result of the loss of income from international students. Touting international students as a key export earner, the Government plans to double the sector’s economic contribution to $7.2 billion by 2034 by increasing enrolments. 

A 2024 survey by Education New Zealand found that 41% of New Zealanders said they would like to see more international students in New Zealand. Another 36% supported the same number of students. Only 11% indicated they would like to see fewer international students arrive. Some 82% of New Zealanders agreed that international students contribute to our cultural diversity. Some 79% feel that international students help local students learn about other cultures and ways of life, as well as contributing to local businesses during their studies.

Although these responses sound largely positive, they mean that less than half of New Zealanders support the Government’s plan to increase the number of international students from current levels.

When New Zealand first reopened its border to international students in mid-2022, there was concern that other countries had reopened earlier and were recovering more quickly. However, key destinations such as Canada, the UK, and Australia have not made the most of their early advantage, implementing tighter policies around student visas in 2024/25.

In 2024, Canada introduced a cap on new study permits for international students due to concerns about increasing pressure on housing, resources, and infrastructure. The number of new study permits was reduced by 35%. The cap was reduced by a further 10% in 2025. Rules around Post-Graduation Work Permits have also been tightened. The UK has tightened rules around international student dependents, Post-Study Work Visas, and English language requirements. Australia has tightened rules around financial and English requirements.

By contrast, the New Zealand Government has recently made changes to international student visa in-study work rights, designed to support their target of 119,000 students, by enabling international students to earn more while studying. From November the Government has said it will:

• increase in-study work rights from 20 to 25 hours per week for eligible student visa holders.
• extend eligibility for in-study work rights to all tertiary students in approved exchange or Study Abroad programmes, including programmes that are just one semester long.

The Government has also said it will investigate:

• introducing a short-duration work visa of up to six months for some international graduates who do not qualify for post-study work rights, allowing them time to seek employment in their field of study under the Accredited Employer Work Visa pathway.
• making it easier for students to apply for multi-year visas. 

To meet its target, the Government has also said it wants to raise awareness among international students of New Zealand as a safe, welcoming, premier study destination, and increase the proportion of prospective students rating NZ among their top three choices of study destination.

Achieving 119,000 international student enrolments by 2034 isn’t all that ambitious, at least in an historical context. Yes, it’s 43% more enrolments than we had in 2024, but it’s also 10% fewer enrolments than the 131,800 we had in 2016 when international student numbers were at their peak.

Is 119,000 achievable? It depends on the outcome of two opposing forces — the continued recovery to pre-COVID levels and the anticipated slowdown and plateauing in broader international arrivals over the short- to medium-term, of which international students are a part.

With enrolments currently at 72% of pre-COVID levels, there’s clearly headroom for further recovery, which will get us closer to the 119,000 target. Much of the recovery depends on Auckland’s ability to attract more students, but all regions can play a part. Universities have led the recovery, but polytechnics and English language schools need to step up. Recent changes to in-study work rights will take time to have an effect.

The good news is that broader migration trends should support the Government’s goal. To the extent that trends in international student numbers reflect broader trends in international migrant arrivals, Infometrics expects international arrivals to hold at around 95,000 per annum from 2027 to 2030 (our latest forecast year), which is very similar to pre-COVID levels (see Chart 4). Much depends on the performance of the New Zealand economy, particularly job creation, out to 2030 and beyond, as migrants (including international students to some degree) tend to be attracted to countries where they have a decent chance of finding work.

COVID-19 disruptions aside, it seems like a no-brainer that international students are good for the economy, and that immigration policies should be geared towards retaining the more highly qualified international students post-graduation. However, there remain concerns about possible displacement of domestic graduates in the labour market, as well as pressure on housing, infrastructure, and other resources. New Zealand’s policy towards international students tends to change over the political cycle and, as recent international examples demonstrate, other developed countries also struggle to strike the right balance.